MESSAGE
| DATE | 2024-01-24 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
|
| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] Where is the next flashpoint
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Kim Jong Un: Is North Korea's leader actually considering war?
By Frances Mao
9–12 minutes
23rd January 2024, 07:39 EST
KCNA Kim Jong Un at a lectern addresses the Supreme People's Assembly
legislators on 15/1KCNA
Kim Jong Un's new tone should not be ignored, say experts
North Korea experts - by nature, a cautious group who seek to avoid
sowing panic - have been left reeling by two of their own.
Last week, the two eminent analysts dropped a bomb - so to speak - in
stating their belief that the pariah state's leader is preparing for
war.
Kim Jong Un has scrapped the bedrock goal of reconciling and re-uniting
with South Korea, they said. Instead, he's presenting the North and
South as two independent states at war with each other.
"We believe, that like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a
strategic decision to go to war," wrote Robert L Carlin, a former CIA
analyst and Siegfried S Hecker, a nuclear scientist who's visited the
North several times, in an article on specialist site 38 North.
Such a pronouncement set off alarm bells in Washington and Seoul, and a
massive debate in North Korea watching circles.
Most analysts, however, disagree with the war theory; the BBC spoke to
seven experts across Asia, Europe and North America - none of whom
supported the idea.
"Risking his entire regime on a potentially cataclysmic conflict is not
on-brand for the North Koreans. They have proven to be ruthlessly
Machiavellian," says Christopher Green, a Korea watcher from Crisis
Group based in the Netherlands.
He and others note the North often acts out to bring Western powers to
the table for dialogue; and there are political pressures at home too.
But they do agree that Mr Kim's increased bluster can't be ignored and
his regime has grown more dangerous.
While most argue war may still be unlikely, some fear a more limited
attack could yet be on the cards.
What has led to this?
Close watchers of North Korea's Kim Jong Un are used to his nuclear
threats, but some say the latest messages from Pyongyang are of a
different nature.
KCNA Kim Jong Un at a lectern addresses the Supreme People's Assembly
legislators on 15/1KCNA
Kim set a new path at the Supreme People's Assembly session on 15
January
Six days on from his New Year's Eve declaration that "it is fait
accompli that a war can break out anytime on the Korean peninsula", his
military blasted artillery across the border.
North Korea has also claimed a test of a new solid-fuelled missile, and
its underwater attack drones, which can supposedly carry a nuclear
weapon, since the start of January.
They follow on from two years of near-monthly missile launches and
weapons development in blatant contravention of UN sanctions.
However, it was his announcement of formally abandoning the goal of
unification that last week furrowed brows.
Reuniting with the South had always been a key - if increasingly
unrealistic - part of the North's ideology since the inception of the
state.
"This is a big deal. It fundamentally alters one of the regime's core
ideological precepts," says Peter Ward, a senior researcher at Kookmin
University in Seoul.
Kim Jong Un would now be tearing down that legacy - literally. Along
with shutting diplomacy channels and cross-border radio broadcasts, he
has announced he will demolish the Reunification Arch, a nine-storey
monument on the outskirts of Pyongyang.
The arch, showing two women in traditional Korean dress reaching towards
each other, had been built in 2001 to mark his father's and
grandfather's efforts towards the goal of reunification.
Getty Images The Reunification Arch in North Korea as seen in 2008Getty
Images
Kim Jong Un said he plans to destroy this unification symbol to show his
disgust with the South
Satellite pictures released by Planet Labs on Tuesday appear to show the
arch may already have been destroyed, although there's no official
confirmation of this.
Kim Il Sung had been the one who went to war in 1950, but he was also
the one who set the idea that at some point North Koreans would be
united with their southern kin again.
But his grandson has now chosen to define South Koreans as different
people altogether - perhaps to justify them as a military target.
A limited strike on the cards?
Mr Carlin and Dr Hecker, the analysts who predicted war, have
interpreted all of this as signs that Kim Jong Un has settled on
actually pursuing a fight.
But most analysts disagree. Seong-Hyon Lee, from the George HW Bush
Foundation for US-China relations, points out the country is due to
reopen to foreign tourists next month, and it has also sold its own
shells to Russia for war - something it could ill afford if it were
preparing for the battlefields.
The ultimate deterrent, however, is that were the North to launch an
attack, the US and South Korea armies are just so much more advanced.
"A general war could kill a lot of people in the South, but it would be
the end of Kim Jong Un and his regime," says Kookmin University's Mr
Ward.
Instead, he and others warn the conditions are building for a smaller
action.
"I'm much more concerned, in general, about a limited attack on South
Korea… an attack of that sort would take aim at South Korean territory
or military forces but be limited in scope," says analyst Ankit Panda,
from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
This could even be in the form of shelling or attempted occupation of
contested islands west of the Korean peninsula.
In 2010, the North struck the island of Yeonpyeong killing four South
Korean soldiers, infuriating the South.
A BBC map shows North and South Korea with the respective capitals,
Pyongyang and Seoul, both marked - along with the South's Yeonpyeong,
Daecheong and Baengnyeong islands to the west
A similar provocation again could be done to test the South Korea's
limits, analysts suggest, and to push the buttons of President Yoon Suk
Yeol, a defiantly hawkish leader who has vowed to respond to a North
Korean attack with punishment "multiple times more severe".
"North Korea may expect to draw out a disproportionate retaliatory
attack from Seoul," says Mr Panda, something that might spark a broader
escalation in fighting.
Playbook move for leverage
Others say war fears should also be put in the context of Kim's
operating patterns.
"Looking at the history of North Korea, it has often used provocation to
attract the attention of other countries when it wants to negotiate,"
says Seong-Hyon Lee.
The regime continues to suffer from economic sanctions and 2024 is an
election year for its enemies - with the US presidential vote and South
Korean legislature poll.
"This presents a good opportunity for Kim Jong Un to provoke," explains
Dr Lee.
The current US administration under President Joe Biden - tied up with
Ukraine and Gaza - hasn't paid North Korea much heed and Pyongyang has
also typically had most engagement with Republican administrations.
Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump famously had a bromance in 2019 before the
denuclearisation talks soured - and the North Korean leader may be
waiting for the former US president to return to the White House, where
he might weaken the alliance with South Korea and be open to dialogue
again.
North Korea's closer friendship with Russia and continued economic
support from China in the past year may have also boosted its audacity,
analysts suggest. It's received technical help from Russia to achieve a
long-term goal of launching its spy satellites and the two states had
several high-profile meetings including a leaders summit last year.
Reuters Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin are followed by their delegations
as they tour a space launch site at Vostochny Cosmodrome on 13/9Reuters
Kim travelled to Russia's leading space facility last November after
which his regime was able to launch their satellite
"Much of what we're seeing is a result of broader North Korean
confidence in its own capabilities and its geopolitical position given
Russian, and to a lesser degree, Chinese support," says Mr Panda.
Domestic goals
And others say Kim Jong Un's behaviour is all aimed at stabilising his
own regime.
"This appears to be an ideological adjustment for regime survival,"
argues Professor Leif-Eric Easley from Ewha University in Seoul. "North
Koreans are increasingly aware of their Communist country's failings
compared to the South."
He suggests a policy focused on defining the enemy is intended to
justify Mr Kim's missile spending during a difficult time. There are
reports of starvation across the country.
North Koreans tell of neighbours starving to death
A family's escape from North Korea through a minefield and
stormy seas
Presenting the South as the enemy also makes it easier to
resolve "cognitive dissonance at the heart" of the North's view
on South Korea, points out Mr Ward.
"Previously it was an indelibly evil state that was supposed to
be the object of unification with a hopelessly corrupting
culture that should not be consumed under any circumstances but
with people who need to be liberated from their evil
government," says Mr Ward.
"Now the country and its culture can just be branded evil and
that justifies the continued crackdown on South Korean culture."
The BBC last week published rare footage showing two North
Korean teenagers sentenced to 12 years hard labour for watching
K-dramas.
"He doesn't actually want a war - a huge gamble where he would
have nothing to gain and everything to lose", says Sokeel Park,
from Liberty in North Korea, an NGO helping North Korean
refugees.
His threats are instead aimed at cementing his new North and
South policy, designed ultimately to shore up his power at home,
he says.
While it's important for South Korea, the US and allies to
prepare for the worst-case scenario, it is also worth a thorough
examination of the internal situation in North Korea and the
wider geopolitics, analysts say.
At the end of the day, the best way to find out what the North's
leader is thinking is to engage with him, argues Dr Lee.
"The international community does not see the US talking to Kim
Jong Un as surrendering to Kim Jong Un's threats. It is seen as
a necessary means to achieve a goal," he says.
"If necessary, one should consider meeting with the leader of an
enemy nation to reduce misjudgements and prevent war."
With reporting by Kelly Ng
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