MESSAGE
| DATE | 2024-01-04 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
|
| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] The Iran Russian Alliance deepens
|
WSJ News Exclusive | Russia Moves Forward With Plans to Buy Iranian
Ballistic Missiles
Michael R. Gordon, Gordon Lubold and Benoit Faucon
7–8 minutes
Russia is planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, a
step that would enhance Moscow’s ability to target Ukraine’s
infrastructure at a critical moment in the conflict, U.S. officials said.
Moscow’s plans have provoked deep concern within the Biden
administration and come as support wanes in Congress for continued U.S.
military assistance for Ukraine. Lawmakers have yet to pass a bill that
would provide additional funding for Ukraine.
“The United States is concerned that Russian negotiations to acquire
close-range ballistic missiles from Iran are actively advancing,” one of
the U.S. officials said. “We assess that Russia intends to purchase
missile systems from Iran.”
Delivery of the Iranian missiles could happen as soon as this spring if
the purchase proceeds, but U.S. officials don’t believe the deal has
been completed.
The Iranian missiles would add to Moscow’s recent acquisitions, which
include ballistic-missile launchers and several dozen ballistic missiles
from North Korea, the officials said.
On Thursday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that
Russian forces fired at least one of the missiles into Ukraine last week
and that it had landed in an empty field.
Several days earlier, Russia had launched multiple North Korean
ballistic missiles, which have a range of about 550 miles, and the U.S.
was still assessing those attacks, Kirby said.
“We expect Russia and North Korea to learn from these launches,” Kirby
said. Pyongyang was seeking fighter planes, surface to air missiles,
armored vehicles, ballistic missile technology and other military
technology in return for providing missiles to Russia, he added.
U.S. officials said that Moscow’s desire to acquire Iranian missiles was
evident in mid-December when a Russia delegation visited an Iranian
training area to observe ballistic missiles and related equipment
displayed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force,
including its short-range Ababil missile.
That visit, which hasn’t previously been disclosed and marks a further
step toward acquiring Iranian missiles, followed a September trip by
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to the headquarters of the IRGC
Aerospace Force in Tehran. During that visit, Shoigu observed a display
of the Ababil and other missile systems, U.S. officials said. He also
met Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed
forces, and boasted that Russian-Iranian relations were reaching a new
level.
Engulfed in a grinding war of attrition and facing international
sanctions, Russia has also turned to North Korea to supplement its
efforts to produce arms at home. Russian President Vladimir Putin and
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held a summit at a spaceport in Russia’s
far east in September and pledged greater cooperation on economic and
security issues.
In the past several weeks, North Korea has begun to ship a range of
weaponry to Russia, including, for the first time, short-range ballistic
missiles to eastern Russia, according to several officials familiar with
the transaction. The weaponry includes previously reported stocks of
artillery, officials said.
Military analysts say that Moscow’s acquisition of the Iranian and North
Korean missiles could provide an important boost for Russia as it is
stepping up its attacks and trying to overwhelm Ukraine’s antimissile
defenses.
“The strikes that Russia has executed in recent days demonstrate the
importance to the Russians of having a large supply of ballistic
missiles,” said Frederick Kagan, director of the Critical Threats
Project at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.
Russia has been looking for ways to overcome Ukrainian air defenses by
increasing the number of missiles launched, and adjusting the types of
weapons it is using, according to Kagan. “Having enough ballistic
missiles in their arsenal is a very important part of that,” he added.
Russia has already acquired a large number of drones from Iran to attack
Ukraine. Moscow and Tehran have also been building a new factory in
Russia that could make thousands of drones for the conflict, U.S.
officials have said.
Russia’s outreach to Iran and North Korea represents a shift from its
posture in past years when it cooperated with the U.S. and other Western
powers in trying to limit the two nations’ capabilities.
The U.S. fears that Russia’s growing cooperation with Tehran will not
only help Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine but also strengthen Iran’s
military capabilities in the Middle East and potentially provide revenue
to bolster its economy, which has been battered by Western sanctions. In
November, U.S. officials said that Russia has been helping Tehran
develop its satellite collection capabilities and has also been offering
“unprecedented defense cooperation” on missiles, military electronics
and air defense.
A U.N. Security Council resolution adopted soon after the 2015 Iran
nuclear deal banned Tehran from exporting or importing some types of
missiles and drones, as well as military technology that can be used to
produce and operate missiles, without the approval of the council.
But that restriction formally expired in October, raising concerns among
some Western officials that Tehran may now seek to turn to military
sales to Russia and other nations.
With the expiration of the U.N. ban, the U.S. imposed sanctions intended
to discourage Iran’s missile trade and issued a statement with 47 other
nations vowing to block Iran’s sale of ballistic missiles and related
technology. But Russia’s Foreign Ministry has said the U.N. restrictions
on buying missile technology from Iran or providing it to Tehran no
longer need to be followed.
Before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was a more cooperative
partner with Washington. It joined the U.S., European nations and China
in negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. It also supported
tough sanctions in the U.N. Security Council on North Korea through 2017
in response to Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile activities.
“Russia was basically supportive of getting North Korea to accept all
kinds of restrictions,” said Robert Einhorn, a former senior State
Department official, referring to the bygone era of cooperation.
Moscow’s latest actions reflect a shift in its strategic orientation,
according to Einhorn. “Its foreign policy is largely based on
undermining U.S. interests,” he said.
Write to Michael R. Gordon at michael.gordon-at-wsj.com, Gordon Lubold at
gordon.lubold-at-wsj.com and Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon-at-wsj.com
--
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