MESSAGE
| DATE | 2022-12-27 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
|
| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] Cost of lockdowns
|
WSJ News Exclusive | Pandemic Learning Loss Could Cost Students $70,000
in Lifetime Earnings
Ben Chapman and Douglas Belkin
5–6 minutes
Study by Stanford University economist projects the losses could total
$28 trillion over the rest of this century
Learning loss could shave $70,000 off the lifetime earnings of children
who were in school during the pandemic, according to a new study by a
Stanford economist.
The sobering forecast is based on an analysis of the sharp declines in
the scores of eighth-graders on national math tests taken between 2019
and 2022.
If the learning losses aren’t recovered, K-12 students on average will
grow into less educated, lower-skilled and less productive adults and
will earn 5.6% less over the course of their lives than students
educated just before the pandemic, said Eric A. Hanushek, a Stanford
University economist who specializes in education. He said the losses
could total $28 trillion over the rest of this century.
“The economic costs of the learning losses will swamp business cycle
losses,” said Dr. Hanushek.
Scores on the 2022 National Assessment of Educational Progress, known as
the Nation’s Report Card, fell across the board. Dr. Hanushek’s analysis
is based on eighth grade math test scores that fell an average of eight
points from 2019, before the pandemic. That is the largest drop ever
recorded on the 32-year-old exam and translates to between 0.6 and 0.8
years of missed school, according to Dr. Hanushek.
Students in Oklahoma, Delaware and West Virginia fared among the worst,
with declines of about 12 points. Students in Idaho, Alabama and Alaska
showed some of the smallest declines—four points—and Utah didn’t
register a statistically significant decline.
Those declines could translate into lifetime income loss of between 3%
and 9% depending on the state, Dr. Hanushek said.
Dr. Hanushek’s analysis echoes a study released in October by
researchers from Harvard and Dartmouth Universities, which estimated
that if the learning loss isn’t reversed, it would equate to a 1.6% drop
in lifetime earnings for the average K-12 student.
That study also found learning loss leads to lower high school
graduation rates and college enrollment as well as higher teen
motherhood, arrests and incarceration.
Nationwide, the percentage of eighth-grade students who failed to attain
basic levels of math skills on the exam grew to 38% from 31% before the
pandemic. That means those students typically struggle to solve simple
algebra and geometry equations, such as solving for the angles in a
triangle, said Daniel McGrath, acting associate commissioner for
assessments at the National Center for Education Statistics, which
administers the test.
“I think these eighth-graders are really, potentially, in a difficult
spot,” Dr. McGrath said.
During periods of remote learning in the pandemic, the quality of math
instruction suffered, often relying on memorization and mimicry, rather
than a deeper understanding of concepts, said Kevin J. Dykema, an
eighth-grade math teacher in Mattawan, Mich., and president of the
National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. “It’s because they were
used to just sitting in front of a computer screen,” he said.
Students are taking longer to learn concepts this year, require more
tutoring, and struggle to engage in group activities, he said.
Of about 2 billion school-age children in the world, 1.6 billion missed
a significant amount of classroom time during the pandemic, according to
a Unicef report published in December 2021. Previous disruptions offer
some insight about what that loss could portend and indicate the
learning losses suffered during the pandemic may be permanent.
The findings follow similar income drops economists have studied
connected to learning losses after natural disasters and political
interruptions around the world. In Argentina, where regional teacher
strikes were commonplace between 1988 and 2014, primary students in some
regions of the country missed an average of 88 days of school over the
course of their primary-school education, according to a 2019 paper
published by the Journal of Labor Economics and co-authored by Alexander
Willén, a professor of economics at the Norwegian School of Economics in
Bergen, Norway.
Those students attained less education, accrued fewer skills and, as
adults, had higher rates of unemployment than students who were in
districts without school disruptions due to teacher strikes. The impact
was greater on younger students and those from poorer families.
When they reached the ages of 30 to 40, the men earned 3.2% less and the
women 1.9% less than those who weren’t affected by strikes during their
school years, the study found.
--------------------------------
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