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| DATE | 2020-10-15 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
|
| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] Exodus from NYC in full swing
|
https://www.wsj.com/articles/young-families-are-driving-the-exodus-from-new-york-city-to-the-suburbs-11602763200?mod=hp_lead_pos13
wsj.com
Young Families Are Driving the Exodus From New York City to the Suburbs
Stephanie Yang
8-10 minutes
Harry Wolff, a software-engineering manager who lived in Manhattan’s
Stuyvesant Town neighborhood complex, was already planning to move to
Connecticut with a second child on the way. Covid-19 accelerated that
departure.
His ability to work remotely eased concerns about a longer office
commute from the suburbs. Then, after struggling to find outdoor play
space in New York City for his 2-year-old son, his mind was made up. In
June, Mr. Wolff moved his family to a three-bedroom house in Fairfield,
Conn.
“Almost all of our friends have left the city,” he said, adding that
many of them also were planning to move in the next few years. “It’s sad
because there’s no celebration of the departure. It’s almost like a slow
slink away.”
The pandemic has led many New York City residents to uproot their lives
in search of more spacious living quarters or cheaper rent. Among them
are parents with young children. Many already were dreaming of
tree-filled backyards and highly rated public-school systems in the
suburbs when the pandemic expedited their decision to move.
Former urbanites have sparked bidding wars for homes around suburbs of
New York City in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. A home for sale
in Fairfield, Conn.
Photo: Desiree Rios for The Wall Street Journal
Now, with a busy summer and fall buying season winding down, analysts
are trying to gauge the persistence of the migration and its lasting
impacts on the city’s housing and economy.
“The stereotypical scenario is that a young professional couple starts
having kids and then they move out to the suburbs,” said Jonathan
Miller, president of the appraisal firm Miller Samuel. “You took what
would be a natural trend and compressed five years into about three
months of outbound migration.”
This wave of selling has contributed to a glut of properties in a number
of New York City neighborhoods and weighed on home prices. In August,
total sales inventory across the five boroughs reached its highest level
for data going back to 2010, according to real-estate listing company
StreetEasy.
“ “You took what would be a natural trend and compressed five years into
about three months of outbound migration.” ”
— Jonathan Miller, president of the appraisal firm Miller Samuel
New signed contracts in Manhattan decreased 31% year over year for the
month of August, according to Miller Samuel. Larger properties like two-
to four-bedroom homes may be the most affected if families decide to
leave New York rather than purchase more space, said Danielle Hale,
economist at Realtor.com. ( News Corp, owner of The Wall Street Journal,
also operates Realtor.com under license from the National Association of
Realtors.)
Meanwhile, these former city dwellers have sparked bidding wars in
places like Long Island and Westchester County, N.Y. They have helped
revive housing markets from Greenwich, Conn., to South Orange, N.J.
“These houses are not lasting a week,” said Jared Kaliner, an Upper East
Sider who has been looking at homes around Montclair, Livingston and
Millburn, N.J., for his family of three.
Jared Kaliner and his wife, Jessie Kaliner, on a pre-pandemic trip to
California earlier this year.
Photo: Jared Kaliner
Maria Doulis, vice president of the Citizens Budget Commission, a
nonpartisan fiscal watchdog, said the exodus of families could hurt the
city’s tax base and make it harder to maintain services.
“Some of the calculus is changing for families,” said Ms. Doulis. “We
need more people to be in the city to keep our city growing and our
economy thriving. Parents who choose to raise children here are part of
that ecosystem.”
Fewer families with small children, however, could create more buying
opportunities for young New Yorkers and easier entry for children into
the city’s competitive schools. Some neighborhoods in the boroughs have
even become more popular during the pandemic, like in Brooklyn, where
August sales rose 87%.
More on Covid-19’s Impact
Still, some people who left the city temporarily aren’t coming back. For
Jonathan Wasserstrum, chief executive of commercial real-estate startup
SquareFoot, a brief retreat during the initial shutdown to his
father-in-law’s house in Mamaroneck, in Westchester, became a de facto
move to the suburbs one year ahead of schedule.
“When we first went out there, we didn’t know that it was going to be
permanent,” said Mr. Wasserstrum, who had his first child in May. Since
then, it has been more practical for the new parents to stay upstate
rather than return to their one-bedroom apartment in Greenwich Village.
Jonathan Wasserstrum and his wife, Amanda Wasserstrum, left New York
City for Mamaroneck, N.Y., ahead of the birth of their son Cole.
Photo: Jonathan Wasserstrum
Some recent suburban transplants hadn’t thought much about leaving New
York City until the pandemic upended much of the city’s appeal.
“Why pay 3.8% New York City tax when you don’t get the benefit of
everything the city has to offer?” said Matt Hagel, chief financial
officer at the meal-delivery company Freshly.
Young professional couples often leave New York City for places like
Fairfield, Conn., when they start having kids. The pandemic compressed
several years of outbound migration into just a few months.
Photo: Desiree Rios for The Wall Street Journal
Mr. Hagel enjoyed living in Brooklyn’s Park Slope neighborhood for the
past five years. Since the pandemic, he can no longer go to concerts or
visit bars and restaurants around the city.
With a 2-year-old and another child on the way, he is in the process of
closing on a house in his hometown of Port Washington, on Long Island.
It’s still unclear if the pandemic will ultimately result in a greater
number of New Yorkers fleeing to the suburbs, or if it is simply
accelerating the pace of those who were likely to move anyway.
Some former New York City residents already are imagining an eventual
return. Ashley Healy, a sales executive at Getty Images, purchased a
home in New Jersey’s Monmouth County and moved there in August, but
misses the old neighborhood.
“When I wake up in the morning sometimes, I can’t believe I can’t go
walk up and down Court Street and say ‘hi’ to my favorite business
owners,” she said. “Brooklyn is in our hearts and always will be home.
We look forward to getting back there someday.”
Write to Stephanie Yang at stephanie.yang-at-wsj.com
Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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