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| DATE | 2020-08-17 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
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| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] U.S. Coronavirus Forecasts Offer Somber Outlook,
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wsj.com
U.S. Coronavirus Forecasts Offer Somber Outlook
Talal Ansari and Stella Yifan Xie
11-13 minutes
The U.S. coronavirus death toll is expected to pass 180,000 and could
reach 200,000 by Sept. 5, according to modelers whose forecasts are
shared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—a somber
prediction as the country tries to battle the virus and revitalize the
economy.
U.S. deaths currently number at least 169,313, according to data
compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Total infections exceed 5.3
million, with the new cases logged Friday topping 60,000 after two days
of over 50,000 new cases, according to the Johns Hopkins data. The U.S.
total represents about a quarter of the cases world-wide, which
surpassed 21 million.
California became the first U.S. state to report more than 600,000
confirmed coronavirus cases. Deaths there exceed 11,000. Meanwhile, in
New York, once the U.S.’s epicenter of the virus., Gov. Andrew Cuomo
said Saturday hospitalizations in the state had dropped to 523, the
lowest since March 17. Mr. Cuomo also said the state on Friday set a new
daily record for the number of Covid-19 tests reported at 88,668, with a
0.8% positivity rate.
Daily reported Covid-19 deaths in the U.S.
March 1March 1Aug. 1605001,0001,5002,0002,500deathsNationalemergency
declaredMarch 131,076Aug. 8
Seven-day rolling average
Notes: For all 50 states and D.C., U.S. territories and cruises. Some
fluctuation in data, such as the June 25 spike, is due to states
revising criteria for deaths due to Covid-19. Last updated Aug. 16, at
9:59 p.m.
Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering
Daily reported Covid-19 cases in the U.S.
March 1March 1Aug. 16020,00040,00060,00080,000casesNationalemergency
declaredMarch 1342,048Aug. 16
Seven-day rolling average
Note: For all 50 states and D.C., U.S. territories and cruises. Last
updated Aug. 16, at 9:59 p.m.
Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering
The CDC updated guidance for people who have recovered from a
coronavirus infection, based on findings that they can continue to test
positive for up to three months without being infectious to others.
People should stay isolated for at least 10 days after symptoms appear
and until 24 hours after their fever subsides, but after that need not
“quarantine or get tested again for up to three months as long as they
do not develop symptoms again,” the CDC website says.
McKesson Corp. will lead the distribution of future coronavirus vaccines
and related supplies, President Trump said Friday, part of the
government’s efforts to accelerate development and production of drugs
and vaccines for Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.
More than a third of Americans surveyed, though, said they would choose
not to be vaccinated for the coronavirus, an NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist
poll released Friday showed, while 60% said they would take the shot.
Still, that is more vaccine-positive than with the H1N1 flu in 2009,
when the margin was 42% no and only 52% yes.
Monitoring the U.S. Outbreak
Confirmed cases by state, ranked by latest full-day count
Daily confirmed cases per 100,000 residents
TrendOverall cases
0255075July 27August 3August
10GeorgiaFloridaKansasNevadaMississippiIowaAlabamaTexasOklahomaSouth
CarolinaHawaiiMissouriTennesseeIdahoNorth DakotaIndianaNorth
CarolinaIllinoisWisconsinKentuckyMarylandNebraskaArizonaCaliforniaMinnesotaAlaskaMontanaUtahVirginiaSouth
DakotaMichiganWest VirginiaWashingtonOregonOhioWyomingMassachusettsNew
MexicoPennsylvaniaDistrict of ColumbiaDelawareColoradoNew YorkNew
JerseyMaineVermontNew HampshireLouisianaRhode
IslandConnecticutArkansas▼▼▲▼▼▲▼▼▼▼▲▲▼▼▲▼▼▼▼▲▼▲▼▲▼▲▲▼▼▲▲▲▼▼▼▼▼▼▲▼▲▼▲▲▲▲▼▼▼▲▼237,030573,41633,88561,30572,13652,447108,433555,39448,342106,4975,04268,196133,70827,6568,58780,415144,952207,41265,74138,930100,21230,372193,537623,87365,1524,2595,75046,652106,68710,274102,2598,56767,46123,262108,2873,286123,59323,408129,07013,22016,45153,157425,508187,4554,1681,5156,988137,91820,33550,89752,665
Note: Trend indicates whether a state had an increase or decrease in
total number of cases in the past seven days compared with previous
seven days. Last updated Aug. 16, at 9:59 p.m.
Sources: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering; the
Lancet; Associated Press; U.S. Census
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued emergency authorization for
an inexpensive Covid-19 test that Yale University developed in
partnership with the National Basketball Association. Players and staff
took the saliva test, known as SalivaDirect, along with the more
traditional, and more invasive, nasal and oral swabs. The results of
both methods were nearly identical, according to a non-peer-reviewed
report published earlier this month.
“Being able to perform a test without extraction kits can increase
testing capacity and reduce the strain on resources,” the FDA said.
“Since the saliva sample is self-collected under the observation of a
health care professional, this test could also potentially lower the
risk posed to health care workers responsible for sample collection.”
SalivaDirect is the fifth saliva-based sample test that has received FDA
authorization.
On Saturday, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer signed an executive order
that would require widespread Covid-19 testing in the state’s prison and
jails. The executive order establishes new testing and safety protocols
to limit the spread of the virus in confined populations. Part of the
executive order requires the testing of inmates during entry to,
transfer and release from various types of correctional facilities,
including juvenile detention centers.
U.S. retail spending surpassed prepandemic levels in July, rising 1.2%
from June. But further economic pain may lie ahead: More-recent evidence
suggests households are moderating spending in certain areas, in part
because of the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits at the end
of July. A study published this month by the National Bureau of Economic
Research projects the elimination of the benefit will result in a 44%
decline in local spending. The Senate failed to reach an agreement
Thursday on a new economic relief package, and adjourned until Sept. 8.
President Trump has acted to replace the payments with a $300-a-week
benefit, but it isn’t expected to reach workers for weeks.
In Europe, several nations on Friday restricted travel to and from
certain parts of the European Union where coronavirus infection rates
have surged in recent weeks. In usual times, travel within the EU is
passport-free and without any restrictions.
Germany’s foreign ministry warned against travel to Spain, a popular
summer holiday destination for German tourists. Travelers who return
from Spain will have to take a test and await its result in quarantine.
The U.K. beginning Saturday will require people coming from France and
the Netherlands to quarantine for 14 days, with France pledging to
reciprocate the measure.
Some Asian countries are seeing a resurgence in new cases.
Stay Informed
Get a coronavirus briefing six days a week, and a weekly Health
newsletter once the crisis abates: Sign up here.
South Korea on Saturday logged 166 new cases, its biggest single-day
increase in five months, lifting its total past 15,000, according to the
Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The government is
restrengthening social-distancing rules for two weeks in the Seoul
metropolitan area, where many of the new cases have flared up.
Attendance at professional sporting events will be restricted, and
government-designated high-risk locations—including public facilities,
nightclubs, karaoke rooms and indoor concert halls—must adopt preventive
measures such as mandatory masks.
China on Friday added 22 new infections, including 14 imported cases,
said the country’s health commission. In Shenzhen, just over the border
from Hong Kong, two workers inside a supermarket owned by Alibaba Group
Holding Ltd. tested positive on Friday. Freshippo, the supermarket
chain, said it was closing all 21 of its Shenzhen stores starting
Saturday to disinfect them and test the employees.
India’s latest daily tallies were 65,002 new cases and 996 deaths,
lifting its totals to 2,526,192 and 49,036, respectively, the health
ministry reported Saturday. As the country marked its 74th Independence
Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said mass production of a coronavirus
vaccine—India has three experimental ones in development, he said—would
begin soon after scientists give the green light. The celebration was
scaled down this year, with safety protocols that included limiting the
number of guests and handing out kits containing masks, sanitizers and
gloves.
Japan’s Emperor Naruhito on Saturday made his first televised remarks on
the virus. After alluding to the suffering from World War II—the speech
fell on the 75th anniversary of his grandfather Hirohitos’s historic
radio address accepting the terms of surrender—Naruhito said the novel
coronavirus has brought new hardships. He called on the nation to “join
hands and overcome this difficult situation.”
In New Zealand, which recently locked down its biggest city, Auckland,
after a new outbreak, authorities said Saturday there were seven new
cases of community transmission. Six were linked to previous cases, but
one remains under investigation. That compares with 12 confirmed new
cases and one probable case reported Friday.
In Australia’s Victoria state, battling the region’s worst coronavirus
outbreak with strict lockdown measures, authorities Saturday reported
303 new cases in the past 24 hours, down from 372 the prior day, and
four more deaths.
Write to Talal Ansari at Talal.Ansari-at-wsj.com and Stella Yifan Xie at
stella.xie-at-wsj.com
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news-08-15-2020-11597481096
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