MESSAGE
| DATE | 2020-07-14 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
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| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] COVID-19 and food shortagees III
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ucdavis.edu
Is the Food Supply Strong Enough to Weather the COVID-19 Pandemic?
9-11 minutes
The scenes are among the most haunting from the COVID-19 pandemic:
Supermarkets where shoppers in protective masks face depleted shelves;
consumers in the midst of panic buying, piling their carts with paper
products, meats, eggs and gallons of water.
Is the food supply chain sturdy enough to weather the COVID-19
pandemic? Consumers hear warnings about the meat supply being
perilously close to shortages. Meanwhile, shoppers feel the impact in
their pocketbooks, with price spikes in eggs and other goods due to
increased demand or stalled production.
Addressing the issues of our complex food systems requires a
multidisciplinary approach. From agricultural experts and economists to
legal scholars and psychologists who help us understand the temptation
to hoard, UC Davis researchers are providing guidance and creating
solutions for now and the food systems of the future.
farm worker UC DavisThe farming industry struggles to adjust to supply
chain issues in the wake of COVID-19. (Hector Amezcua/UC Davis)
A shock to the supply chain
As COVID-19 spread across the United States, the stability of the
nations food systems quickly came into question. Food distribution
relies on two key supply chains one for industry, the other for
consumers and the balance of supply and demand were disrupted
significantly in both.
The abrupt closures of restaurants, schools, hotels and other
industries caused a sharp downturn in demand for foods. That left
produce and other goods with virtually nowhere to go. Crops were left
without their usual buyers. Some dairy farmers were forced to dump milk
supplies.
Meanwhile, anxious shoppers flocked to supermarkets as shelter-in-place
orders loomed. Trucking companies scrambled to keep up with spiking
demand, sometimes resulting in empty store shelves.
Grocery shopping has never been quite like this.
Food systems are used to having incredible shocks but theyre almost
always on supply side, said Daniel Sumner, a professor of agricultural
economics at UC Davis. A freeze wipes out an orange crop, or a disease
affects chickens and egg prices go up. This was the first time in a
long time that there was an incredible disruption in (demand).
COVID-19 outbreaks at meat processing plants have added to the strain.
As of early May, 13 meat packing workers had died from COVID-19,
according to the United Food and Commercial Workers. Shutdowns of
large-scale meat processing operations have led to rising prices and
fears of shortages.
If the disease was in one group of (meat processing workers), you would
try and isolate them, close the plant to clean everything up and begin
to reopen as it stabilizes, said Sumner. But when you re-open youre
running lines more slowly. Theres fewer people on the line and theyll
be further apart. That means (the meat) will be a little more expensive
for us as consumers, and maybe less of it.
Consumers have endured rising prices with other foods as well, although
some have stabilized from their initial spikes. Eggs were among the
first foods to see a sharp price increase. Wholesale benchmark pricing
for a dozen eggs in California was $1.73 per dozen on March 13. By
April 10, that price nearly doubled to $3.47, according to data from
the United States Department of Agriculture.
Overall, consumers paid 2.6 percent more for groceries in April,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Those represented the
largest monthly increase since 1974, nearly a half century.
dollar bill UC DavisIssues of price gouging, hoarding and stockpiling
have emerged during the COVID-19 crisis. (Getty Images)
Anxiety in the marketplace
Rising prices or not, shoppers have continued to flock to supermarkets
during the COVID-19 pandemic. That was especially true during its
initial days, and consumers bought food supplies to last them weeks, or
even months.
Stockpiling became the norm, to a point that issues of consumer
hoarding and price gouging needed to be addressed.
The temptation to hoard during uncertain times doesnt come as a
surprise to Dr. Peter Yellowlees, the chief wellness officer for UC
Davis Health and professor of psychiatry. After all, anxiety about food
supply strikes at a fundamental aspect of being human. So, as consumers
prepare for disaster or endure major disruptions to daily life, panic
buying often comes into play.
We were originally hunters and gatherers and so anything that could
preserve our food supply was going to be good for us, said Yellowlees.
Weve essentially had food insecurity as a core component of our
psychological nature.
However, disruptions to the food supply can also set the stage for
price gouging and other attempts to take advantage of consumers.
A New York shop owner was charged in April with stockpiling protective
equipment and hand sanitizer and selling them at exorbitant prices. The
complaint alleged the shop owner marked-up the prices on some masks
between 59 and 1,328 percent.
Under California law, when a federal, local or state emergency is
declared, the price on food items, gasoline and other essential goods
cannot be raised by more than 10 percent than they were before the
declaration.
Californians shouldnt have to worry about being cheated while dealing
with the effects of coronavirus, said California Attorney General
Xavier Becerra in a consumer alert released March 4.
In early May, a grocery store owner in Pleasanton, California, was
charged with price gouging. The Alameda County district attorney
alleged that the stores owner marked up some essential goods by more
than 300 percent.
Some UC Davis experts are examining the legal ramifications of
hoarding. Federal law restricts certain types of hoarding, but those
laws dont often apply to consumer goods.
For purposes of national defense, the U.S. Code allows the president to
designate certain things as scarce materials and restrict accumulation
in excess of the reasonable demands of business, personal or home
consumption as he deems necessary, said UC Davis law professor Gabriel
Jack Chin in a March interview with UC Davis News.
Meanwhile, shoppers continue to fill their carts like never before.
According to data from NCSolutions, a marketing and advertising firm
that tracks consumer trends, household grocery spending was up 28
percent in April compared to the same month in 2019.
Were living in an age of uncertainty and I guarantee that most
households in the country that can afford it have more food in the
house than normal, said Yellowlees. Thats not hoarding as such. Its
probably pretty rational.
UC DavisExperts say the food supply is plentiful, but issues of equity
and income challenges remain an issue during COVID-19. (Getty Images)
Moving forward, addressing challenges
The current state and future of the food supply continues to be studied
closely as the COVID-19 pandemic endures. In early May, UC Davis Robert
Mondavi Institute for Wine and Food Science hosted a webinar that
studied the issue from multiple sides. The panel included UC Davis
experts, the undersecretary of the California Department of Food and
Agriculture, and guests from the worlds of supermarkets and food
distribution.
While much of the news seems like doom and gloom, some experts have
noted how resilient the nations food supply has remained. Consumers
might not have the same number of options when shopping, but most arent
going hungry because of a withered food supply.
Its remarkable how weve had so much disruption but yet weve all had
plenty to eat, Sumner said during the panel. The disruption in the meat
supply has been quite minor. Theres been lots of headlines but the
meats been there We have a food system thats worked remarkably well.
However, the economic disruptions caused by COVID-19 remain a key point
of concern. Farmers continue to struggle with lost income from
collapsing prices and lowered market demand from industry. Massive job
losses are also leaving more people vulnerable to food insecurity.
Leigh Ann Simmons, chair of the UC Davis Department of Human Ecology,
has been studying the limited access to essential needs in rural areas
and how COVID-19 is exacerbating inequalities.
She notes the irony that rural areas, the places where crops and
animals grow, often have the highest rates of food insecurity. The
economic losses from COVID-19 coupled with a scarcity of food markets
in these areas are creating an especially tough situation.
What unfortunately youre going to see are more food-insecure
households, said Simmons. This has a significant impact on child
development, learning and physical and mental health.
The world continues to weather the pandemic while keeping a close watch
on supplies and prices. Food remains plentiful so far, but lingering
economic disruptions and challenged supply chains will still pose
challenges for consumers.
However, Sumner believes the food supply chain has proven to be
especially sturdy. And the lessons being learned now will bode well for
the future.
Theres plenty of food out there and thats a remarkable statement, said
Sumner. A lack of income is the biggest pressure right now on families
in terms of a food system. Were getting used to these (disruptions) and
well be even more resilient next time.
UC DavisThe UC Davis Student Farm remains resilient during the
challenges of COVID-19. (Hector Amezcua/UC Davis)
Media contacts: Chris J. Macias, Strategic Communications,
cjmacias-at-ucdavis.edu
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