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| DATE | 2020-07-02 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
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| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] nothing to worry about... just keep using the
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sj.com
Russian Submarines Test NATO in Icy North Atlantic
Thomas Grove in Moscow and James Marson in Brussels
9-12 minutes
Late last year, 10 Russian submarines slipped out of their bases on
Russias Arctic coast and set an underwater course westward toward the
North Atlantic.
Deployments such as this, one of the largest exercises since the Cold
War, are a demonstration of the strength and ambition of the Russian
Navy not only to defend its homeland but also to project power into the
Atlantic, say NATO military officials and analysts.
Russia has spent billions of dollars in recent years upgrading an aging
submarine fleet inherited from the Soviet Union with quieter, faster
vessels that can evade detection and travel for longer at greater
depths. Russias Northern Fleet, based on the Kola Peninsula in the
Arctic, is the main submarine force traditionally used to protect
maritime approaches to the Russian north and the fleets
ballistic-missile submarines.
Naval commanders from the U.S. and allies say that Russia is now
deploying more submarines for longer periods in the Atlantic, where they
could threaten North Atlantic Treaty Organization militaries ships and
critical U.S. infrastructure as the Russians patrol the U.S. East Coast.
Russian military officials say that they have increased the frequency
and range of their submarine exercises and that they must boost their
capabilities to counter what they call increasingly aggressive moves
from NATO.
The resurgence of Russias submarine fleet, and its forays into the
Atlantic, are a concern for NATO, which would rely on swift
reinforcement of its forces in Europe by the U.S. via the Atlantic in
case of a conflict with Russia. That strategy would grow in importance
if the U.S. fulfills President Trumps order to withdraw more than a
quarter of U.S. troops based in Germany.
We see it routinely now: more submarines, further away, for longer
periods of time, Vice Adm. Keith Blount, commander of NATOs Allied
Maritime Command, said in an interview.
U.S. Vice Adm. Andrew Lewis, commander of the U.S. Second Fleet, said in
February that U.S. ships leaving the East Coast were entering a
contested space and could no longer expect to cross the Atlantic
unhindered.
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Large-scale Russian naval exercises like the one late last year are
unprecedented since the Cold War, said Norwegian Defense Minister Frank
Bakke-Jensen in emailed comments. It is vital to ensure freedom of
navigation and that the sea lines of communication across the Atlantic
are open if military reinforcement is needed.
Vice Adm. Aleksandr Moiseyev, commander of the Northern Fleet, said
earlier this year that Russia was regularly carrying out naval exercises
with 10 or more submarines and expanding the geographic range of its
exercises to include waters beyond its home base.
When visiting our garrisons, its impossible not to notice that many of
our docks are empty, he said in March, according to Russian news agency
Interfax.
That speaks to the fact that our crews are carrying out their tasks,
perfecting their skills at sea.
The Russian Navy said the exercise in October last year involved testing
weapons and diving to maximum depth in deep international waters off the
Norwegian coast.
The Norwegian Intelligence Service told the Norwegian national
broadcaster at the time that one aim of Russian Navy leaders appeared to
be to demonstrate their ability to send submarines into the Atlantic and
test NATOs ability to track them. The service declined to comment
further.
Mike Petersen, director of the Russia Maritime Studies Institute at the
U.S. Naval War College, said the major mission of Russian submarines in
the Atlantic is tracking critically important targets, everything from
aircraft carriers to critical infrastructure in Europe and the U.S.
A nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarine at the Russian Northern
Fleet base in Severodvinsk, Russia, in 2019.
Photo: Sergei Bobylev/TASS/Zuma Press
A nuclear-powered submarine at the Russian Northern Fleet base in
Gadzhiyevo, Russia, in 2014.
Photo: Lev Fedoseyev/TASS/Zuma Press
They can cross the Atlantic and lay unnoticed off the East Coast, even
strike targets in the U.S. or Europe if left on their own, he said.
U.S. Adm. James Foggo, commander of U.S. Naval Forces in Europe, has
compared the situation to battles for the Atlantic during two world wars
last century, when German submarines attacked Allied ships and, during
the Cold War, when NATOs antisubmarine forces played cat-and-mouse with
Soviet submarines.
We still have an advantage in the undersea domain, but theyre very good
at their tradecraft, Adm. Foggo told a webinar arranged by the
International Institute for Strategic Studies, a U.K. think tank, on
June 25.
NATO is responding by increasing its submarine-hunting capabilities and
stepping up training. The U.K. has ordered nine new Boeing Co. P-8A
Poseidon maritime-patrol aircraft, and Norway has committed to buying
five. The U.S. Navy has returned its own sub-hunting aircraft to
Iceland, where the U.S. had deactivated a Cold War-era air base in 2006.
NATO on Monday began an exercise off Iceland training antisubmarine
warfare and involving ships, submarines and aircraft from six members.
Russian Navy officers participated in a ceremony to commission a
nuclear-powered submarine in Severodvinsk, Russia, last month.
Photo: Sevmash/Tass/Zuma Press
The developments show the renewed importance of what is known as the
GIUK Gap, a maritime chokepoint between Greenland, Iceland and the U.K.
that was closely watched during the Cold War, when NATO installed
surveillance systems and patrolled the gap from the sea and the air. An
early role in the career of Vice Adm. Blount, commander of NATOs Allied
Maritime Command, was piloting a U.K. Royal Navy helicopter hunting for
Soviet submarines in the gap, he recalled.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
How should the U.S. and NATO respond to Russian submarine patrols? Join
the conversation below.
In recent years, Russian submarines have improved their performance to
potentially outmaneuver the Poseidon aircraft, and submariners are
increasingly capable of hiding in the North Atlantics rugged seabed full
of valleys, ridges and cold- and warm-water eddies that bend the kind of
sonar signals the Poseidon relies on, analysts said.
Russia is planning further improvements to its Northern Fleet. The first
Yasen-M class submarine will likely be deployed next year after a number
of sea tests last year. Those vessels are expected to give Russian
pilots better stealth capabilities with a more detailed view of the
North Atlantic seabed for better cover.
Russias nuclear-powered submarines are the most lethal, the stealthiest
and have the longest endurance, among the naval forcesthey are their ace
in the hole, said Mr. Petersen, the Russia Maritime Studies Institutes
director.
Russia is the U.S.s closest near-peer adversary and the challenge to
keep abreast with their developments is very real, said Michael Kofman,
a senior research scientist at the Arlington, Va.-based Center for Naval
Analyses.
More on Russia-NATO Relations
Write to Thomas Grove at thomas.grove-at-wsj.com and James Marson at
james.marson-at-wsj.com
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