MESSAGE
| DATE | 2020-07-01 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
|
| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] Lot s of Protesting and no evidence of COVID
|
izneias.com
Little Evidence That Protests Spread Coronavirus In US - Vos Iz Neias
5-6 minutes
FILE - In this Saturday, June 6, 2020 file photo, demonstrators gather
near the White House in Washington, to protest the death of George
Floyd, a black man who was in police custody in Minneapolis. Public
health experts say there is little evidence that the protests that
erupted after Floyds death caused a significant increase in coronavirus
infections. If the protests had driven an explosion in cases, experts
say, the jumps would have started to become apparent within two weeks
and perhaps as early as five days. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
NEW YORK (AP) There is little evidence that the protests that erupted
after George Floyds death caused a significant increase in U.S.
coronavirus infections, according to public health experts.
If the protests had driven an explosion in cases, experts say, the jumps
would have started to become apparent within two weeks and perhaps as
early as five days. But that didnt happen in many cities with the
largest protests, including New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, and
Washington, D.C.
In whats considered the first systematic look at the question, a team of
economists determined that only one of 13 cities involved in the
earliest wave of protests after Memorial Day had an increase that would
fit the pattern.
It was Phoenix, where experts say cases and hospitalizations surged
after a decision by Gov. Doug Ducey to end Arizonas stay-at-home order
on May 15 and eased restrictions on businesses. Arizona residents who
were cooped up for six weeks flooded Phoenix-area bar districts,
ignoring social distancing guidelines.
In many cities, the protests actually seemed to lead to a net increase
in social distancing, as more people who did not protest decided to stay
off the streets, said that studys lead author, Dhaval Dave of Bentley
University.
The large-scale protests can impact both the behavior of the protesters
and the behavior of the non-protesters, said Dave. The paper was
released last week by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but has
not been published by a peer-reviewed journal.
Drawing from data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, The Associated
Press reviewed trends in daily reported cases in 22 U.S. cities with
protests. It found post-protest increases in several cities including
Houston and Madison, Wisconsin where experts say other factors were
more likely the main drivers.
Health officials are still investigating case surges in different
states, and more data may come in. But experts believe that if the
protests did have a big impact on cases, stronger signs would be
apparent now.
Floyd was killed on May 25 by a Minneapolis police officer who used his
knee to pin Floyds neck to the ground. The killing of a Black man at the
hands of a white officer touched off protests around the United States.
Coincidentally, some states had begun to lift social distancing
restrictions in late May.
Dave and his colleagues counted protests over three weeks in 281 cities
with populations of at least 100,000. Most had protests lasting more
than three days, and many had protests that had at least 1,000
participants.
Its not clear how many protesters participated, let alone how many of
them wore masks or got tested after. That may have varied from place to
place.
Houston is among a number of Texas cities that have recently seen steep
increases in cases and hospitalizations. Dr. Umair Shah, executive
director of the county health department, believes it was likely some
cases could be traced to the protests.
We just dont know how much, he said.
But its hard to measure the the protests precise impact for a number of
reasons, Shah and others said. Earlier business reopenings and more
willingness to shrug off social distancing guidelines started the trend
in the Houston area, Shah said.
Another factor: Many people dont get tested unless they feel symptoms.
Many protesters were young adults, who generally are less likely to get
severe illness, and therefore may not have gotten tested, experts said.
And some who do get tested may still not answer all the questions they
are asked by outbreak investigators.
I know of three people who told us Yes, I was at a protest. That doesnt
mean there was not another 25 or more who did attend a protest and just
did not share that with us, said Dr. Mysheika Roberts, the public health
commissioner for the city of Columbus, Ohio.
That city has seen increased cases in the last month, but health
officials say they cant attribute it to any particular reason other than
people socializing and returning to normal activities without wearing
masks or taking other precautions. So far, protests dont seem to be a
real factor.
Most of the protests, at least in my jurisdiction, were outside, and the
virus does not spread as well outside, Roberts said. And I would say 50%
of those at the protests were wearing a face mask.
--
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