MESSAGE
| DATE | 2020-03-18 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
|
| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout - NYLXS] The Quarantene problem
|
https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/imperial-report-models-global-covid-19-coronavirus-spread-supression/
The modeling in the report affirms that major suppression strategies can
work to reduce viral transmission. These measures include closing
schools and universities, and instituting mass social distancing by
keeping the majority of the population at home in isolation. The problem
is that the modeling suggests the epidemic will spike again as soon as
these measures are relaxed. And with a vaccine potentially 18 months
away, the social, economic and psychological costs of long-term mass
population quarantine is obviously immense.
The ultimate recommendation from the report is that major suppression
measures must be instituted initially, in order to slow the spread of
the virus. While it is unfeasible to continue these strident measures
indefinitely, the report suggests active local monitoring of confirmed
cases will inform when to loosen those measures and when to tighten them
back up, in a strategy analogous to turning a tap on and off.
“To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be
maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunize the
population – which could be 18 months or more,” the report suggests.
“Adaptive hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off
population-wide social distancing and school closure offer greater
robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be
adapted for regional use (e.g. at the state level in the US). Given
local epidemics are not perfectly synchronized, local policies are also
more efficient and can achieve comparable levels of suppression to
national policies while being in force for a slightly smaller proportion
of the time.”
--
So many immigrant groups have swept through our town
that Brooklyn, like Atlantis, reaches mythological
proportions in the mind of the world - RI Safir 1998
http://www.mrbrklyn.com
DRM is THEFT - We are the STAKEHOLDERS - RI Safir 2002
http://www.nylxs.com - Leadership Development in Free Software
http://www.brooklyn-living.com
Being so tracked is for FARM ANIMALS and extermination camps,
but incompatible with living as a free human being. -RI Safir 2013
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