MESSAGE
| DATE | 2016-12-25 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
|
| SUBJECT | Subject: [Hangout-NYLXS] Syria wished you a Merry Christmas
|
Commentary: Aleppo's fall will change U.S. and Russian roles in Syria
Rebel fighters and civilians gather as they wait to be evacuated from a
rebel-held sector of eastern Aleppo, Syria December 16, 2016.
REUTERS/Abdalrhman Ismail
Rebel fighters and civilians gather as they wait to be evacuated from a
rebel-held sector of eastern Aleppo, Syria December 16, 2016.
REUTERS/Abdalrhman Ismail
By Mohamad Bazzi
On Dec. 19, the United Nations Security Council unanimously called for
U.N. officials to observe the stalled evacuation of thousands of
residents and fighters from the last rebel-held districts in the city of
Aleppo, a process that began four days earlier. With President Bashar
al-Assad’s regime and its allies regaining full control over Syria’s
largest city, the nearly six-year-old Syrian civil war is entering a new
phase.
Assad and his allies – including Russia, Iran and various Shi’ite
militias from Lebanon and Iraq – had imposed a long siege, including air
strikes and intensive shelling, on the rebel-controlled parts of Aleppo.
Assad signaled that he would take advantage of his opponents’ weakness,
and move against other rebel-held areas in northern Syria.
But Assad’s forces, which are overextended and depleted after years of
fighting, have had trouble keeping control of territory in other parts
of Syria. On Dec. 11, Islamic State militants recaptured the historic
city of Palmyra, nine months after Syrian regime troops drove the
jihadists out of the UNESCO World Heritage site, where they had
terrorized residents and destroyed ancient monuments.
The fall of Palmyra shows that Islamic State is far from beaten – and
it’s poised to take advantage of Syrian, Russian and Iranian military
resources stretched thin throughout Syria. It also underscores that U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump faces a complex task in trying to keep his
campaign pledge to defeat the group, especially in Syria.
After the fall of eastern Aleppo, there are signs of an emerging
division of labor in Syria between the incoming Trump administration and
that of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia would continue its
intensive air strikes and logistical aid to help Assad recapture
territory from rebels, while the United States would take the lead in
the fight against Islamic State. On Dec. 10, Defense Secretary Ashton
Carter announced that the Pentagon would send 200 additional special
forces to Syria – for a total of 500 U.S. troops on the ground – to help
train and advise Syrian opposition groups who are fighting Islamic
State, especially around the city of Raqqa.
The Syrian civil war has expanded into a regional proxy war involving
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United States. Russia
and Iran, which are the Syrian’s regime two main backers, have mainly
targeted rebel factions opposed to Assad, rather than trying to dislodge
Islamic State from its bastions. Soon after the war started in 2011,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States began supporting various
rebel groups fighting Assad’s regime. More recently, Washington has
intensified air strikes and deployed special forces to mobilize Syrian
opposition groups, mainly led by Kurdish militias, to oust the jihadists
from Raqqa.
The Obama administration has coordinated militarily with Russia to a
limited extent, but it criticized Moscow for entering the war to prop up
Assad and failing to devote significant resources to fighting Islamic
State. Trump, on the other hand, has made clear that he doesn’t see
removing Assad as a U.S. priority, and he signaled a greater willingness
to work with Russia. Assad is clearly pleased with the new
administration, declaring in a recent TV interview: “If Trump can
genuinely fight against terrorism, he can be our natural ally.”
But from the Syrian and Russian perspective, that alliance means relying
on Washington to lead the fight against Islamic State, which neither
Assad nor his backers view as urgent as recapturing rebel-held territory.
Already, Pentagon officials say they would be prepared to strike Islamic
State in Palmyra, if Russian and Syrian forces fail to retake the city
soon. U.S. officials say they’re concerned that the jihadists acquired
powerful weaponry when they captured the city from Syrian troops,
including armored vehicles and air defense systems. “If the Russians and
the regime don’t strike it [weaponry], we will,” Lt. General Stephen
Townsend, the top U.S. military commander in charge of the coalition
against Islamic State, said at Dec. 14 news conference.
Pentagon officials cautioned that Syrian and Russian forces were too
focused on the offensive against rebels in Aleppo, and they allowed
Islamic State to easily recapture Palmyra. “They failed to consolidate
their gains and got distracted by other things that they were doing and
took their eye off the ball there,” Townsend said.
As soon as he’s inaugurated on Jan. 20, Trump will face a crucial
decision: Will he continue the Pentagon’s support and training for the
coalition of Syrian rebel groups which is leading a ground offensive to
oust Islamic State from its self-declared capital in Raqqa? That
campaign began in early November with a mobilization of about 30,000
Syrian rebels to encircle Raqqa, and close off the jihadists’ resupply
routes for weapons and fighters from neighboring Iraq. The U.S.-backed
rebels are now about 15 miles from the city, but the battle could take
months, as it has in the Iraqi city of Mosul, where tens of thousands of
troops are trying to dislodge several thousand militants.
The fledgling Trump administration wants to avoid becoming mired in
Syria’s complicated war, and has signaled that it wants Russia to
continue taking the lead. But other powers might try to drag Washington
deeper into the conflict, or use it to project strength, or to distract
Trump from other goals, such as his insistence on dismantling the Iran
nuclear deal.
Also In Commentary
Commentary: Don't write democracy off just yet
Commentary: Don’t fear the robots; they won’t kill jobs
Iranian leaders are claiming a large stake of the military victory in
Aleppo, and boasting that Assad’s regime would have been unable to
retake the city without support from Iran and its allies, especially the
Lebanese Shi’ite militia Hezbollah. Some Iranian officials are also
using the Aleppo triumph to send a message to the Trump administration
about Tehran’s influence in the region.
“Aleppo was liberated thanks to a coalition between Iran, Syria, Russia
and Lebanon’s Hezbollah,” Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior military adviser
to Iran’s supreme leader, said in Tehran on Dec. 14. “Iran is on one
side of this coalition, which is approaching victory, and this has shown
our strength. The new American president should take heed of the powers
of Iran.”
In another sign of weakened U.S. influence over events in Syria, Russia
reached a deal with Turkey allowing Ankara to exert control along the
Turkish-Syrian border through its own troops and allied rebels. In
exchange, Turkey did not help the rebels in Aleppo resist the
Russian-Syrian offensive. That could become a template for other deals
between Russia and Turkey, and it would further isolate the Syrian
rebels in their remaining northern strongholds. On Dec. 16, Putin
announced that he is working with Turkish leaders to organize a new
series of Syrian peace talks without Washington’s involvement.
For his part, Assad will be emboldened by his military success in Aleppo
– even one so heavily dependent on Russia, Iran and other foreign forces
– to continue taking a hard line and refusing a political compromise
with the rebels. And thanks to Russian maneuvering, Assad and his allies
can outsource the difficult fight with Islamic State to Washington.
About the Author
Mohamad Bazzi is a journalism professor at New York University and
former Middle East bureau chief at Newsday. He is writing a book on the
proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
-at-BazziNYU
--
So many immigrant groups have swept through our town
that Brooklyn, like Atlantis, reaches mythological
proportions in the mind of the world - RI Safir 1998
http://www.mrbrklyn.com
DRM is THEFT - We are the STAKEHOLDERS - RI Safir 2002
http://www.nylxs.com - Leadership Development in Free Software
http://www2.mrbrklyn.com/resources - Unpublished Archive
http://www.coinhangout.com - coins!
http://www.brooklyn-living.com
Being so tracked is for FARM ANIMALS and and extermination camps,
but incompatible with living as a free human being. -RI Safir 2013
_______________________________________________
hangout mailing list
hangout-at-nylxs.com
http://www.nylxs.com/
|
|
