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| DATE | 2015-01-30 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
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| SUBJECT | Subject: [NYLXS - HANGOUT] Fiund the MTA's lost money
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New York City lost an estimated $200 million in economic activity in
the fizzled snowstorm and decision to shut down the transit system —
a loss that wasn't crippling overall but had the biggest impact on small
businesses and hourly workers.
Consumers who would have otherwise bought cars or made other major
purchases will likely do so a day or two later, said Adam Kamins, an
economist with Moody's Analytics, which came up with the preliminary
loss estimate. He noted that many employees forced to stay home Tuesday
were able to telecommute.
"For example, a holiday where people aren't working would have a greater
impact on the economic output than this storm," Kamins said.
Evan Gold, senior vice president for Planalytics, a firm that advises
companies on weather issues, estimated the economic losses for the total
Northeast, including New York, Philadelphia and Boston, at $500 million.
"Now that does sound like a lot of money, but when you think about last
year, where we had a polar vortex, several weeks of that, more
population centers impacted as well as above-normal snowfall, last
year's overall economic impact is pegged at anywhere from $15 billion to
$50 billion," he said. "So in comparison, this is actually a relatively
small event."
In New York, small businesses and hourly workers who rely on tips, such
as taxi drivers and restaurant workers, were keenly affected by the loss
of work time.
Lenice Ferguson, a baker at Insomnia Cookies said the shop is usually
open until about 3 a.m. making deliveries. The bakery closed at about 10
p.m. Monday.
"It's a big deal, because I only work three nights out of the week," the
26-year-old said. "My check is going to be short, and I have bills that
I have to pay."
Subways, rail lines, bridges and tunnels were all closed Monday night.
Residents were told to stay off the streets after 11 p.m. or face fines.
Transportation reopened Tuesday morning after it was clear the storm was
a bust in New York City, with most areas getting about 8 inches instead
of the predicted 2 feet.
Fausto Cabrera opened his Upper West Side barber shot Tuesday morning
but wasn't expecting many customers.
"There was nobody here yesterday and today, just look," he said,
pointing to six empty barber chairs. "All I can do is wait."
Mayor Bill de Blasio said economic loss was much less than it would have
been had the storm hit in full force, and that taking precautions helped
the city get back online faster.
Moody's economist Kamins said that for the Northeast overall, the storm
would have done about $16 billion in damage had it hit full force.
Instead, the impact will likely reach just $1.25 billion.
"I will always err on the side of safety and caution," de Blasio said
Tuesday. "We had consistently been getting reports talking about two
feet or more of snow. To me it was a no-brainer, we had to take
precautions to keep people safe."
Shaon Chowdhury, a manager of Arthur Cab Leasing Corp., in Queens, said
he didn't have a problem with the city's actions even though he lost
about $60,000 in revenue and expenses.
"If they did get 28 inches it would be a problem, so shutting down is a
good idea," he said. "What happens if we did get 28 inches? It would
have been hell."
New York City's 24,000 restaurants probably lost millions in revenue in
total, said Chris Hickey, regional director of New York City for the New
York State Restaurant Association.
For the first time in the decade since it first opened a block north of
Times Square, the TSQ brasserie deserted at mid-afternoon Monday.
Business was down about 70 percent.
"Never in my life was it like this — empty," said manager Mohi
Hassan.
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