MESSAGE
| DATE | 2004-10-12 |
| FROM | Ruben Safir
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| SUBJECT | Subject: [hangout] Bikini Sale!
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Greenhouse Gas Jump Spurs Global Warming Fears
Mon 11 October, 2004 16:29
By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent
OSLO (Reuters) - An unexplained jump in greenhouse gases since 2002
might herald a catastrophic acceleration of global warming if it becomes
a trend, scientists said on Monday.
But they said the two-year leap might be an anomaly linked, for
instance, to forest fires in Siberia or a freak hot summer in Europe in
2003 rather than a portent of runaway climate change linked to human
disruption of the climate system.
"There have been two years where the rise of carbon dioxide (CO2) has
been faster than average," said Richard Betts, Manager for Ecosystems
and Climate Impacts at Britain's Hadley Center.
"We shouldn't get alarmist about this ... If it lasted for more than
about five years you'd start to get worried," he said.
Carbon dioxide levels, the main gas blamed for blanketing the planet and
pushing up temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, have risen by
more than two parts per million (ppm) in the past two years against a
recent rate of about 1.5 ppm.
Scientists said the figures were confirmed at sites including Mauna Loa,
Hawaii, west Ireland or the Norwegian Arctic island of Svalbard, about
1,300 km (800 miles) miles from the North Pole. The rise was less in the
southern hemisphere.
"CO2 levels are up about two ppm in the past two years -- but it would
be pushing it to say that it could be the start of runaway global
warming," said Kim Holmen, senior scientist at the Norwegian Institute
for Air Research (NILU).
The rise in the past two years is quicker than mapped out in U.N.
projections to the year 2100 based on increased human use of fossil
fuels like coal, oil or gas. Higher temperatures could trigger
everything from desertification to rising sea levels.
PLANTS ABSORB CO2
On Svalbard, CO2 levels have varied in 2004 from 365-385 ppm, Holmen
said. The level is lowest in summer, when plants absorb CO2 as they
grow. Organisms from plants to animals emit CO2 when they breathe and
the oceans and soil also trap CO2.
A background fear is that extra human emissions, by cars, factories and
power plants, may be blunting the planet's ability to absorb CO2. In the
worst case, that could lead to a runaway warming.
"These results are deeply worrying, and indicate that the battle against
global climate change could be even more pressing than was previously
thought," echoed Cathrine Pearce, Friends of the Earth International's
climate campaigner.
"It's a worrying sign," said Steve Sawyer, climate policy director at
environmental group Greenpeace.
U.N. scientists project that average temperatures will rise by 1.4 to
5.8 C (3 to 11 F) by 2100 because of human impact on the climate.
Temperatures have already risen by 0.8C since the Industrial Revolution
in tandem with a 30 percent rise in CO2 levels.
The U.N.'s Kyoto protocol, likely to come into force in coming months
with Russian help after a U.S. pullout in 2001, obliges developed
nations to cut their carbon dioxide emissions by 5.2 percent below 1990
levels by
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