MESSAGE
| DATE | 2004-02-11 |
| FROM | From:
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| SUBJECT | Subject: [hangout] [OT] The View From LinuxWorld Expo
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http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,114536,00.asp
The View From LinuxWorld Expo
Why you're probably not on the radar of the major Linux vendors--yet.
Matthew Newton, PC World
Friday, February 06, 2004
I went to the LinuxWorld Expo show in New York last month determined to ask one question to anyone who'd speak with me: When is Linux on
the desktop finally going to take off?
As I mentioned in my first column, I spent a few years predicting that widespread adoption of desktop Linux was right around the corner. How
naive! And yet, as I've also pointed out in this space, most of the necessary pieces are already in place: Device support is pretty strong, user-
friendliness has been addressed (and continues to improve), and solid applications that cover basic computing tasks (Web browsing, e-mail,
office apps) are abundant. So is desktop Linux right around the corner now?
Everything I saw at the show tells me that the answer is ... yes and no. It all depends on whose desktop you're talking about. The Linux
distributors at the show are all gearing up for a huge desktop push at the enterprise level. They're not even thinking about small business or
home use yet. You and I are not on their radar.
Adam Jollans, manager of IBM's worldwide Linux marketing strategy, explains it this way: The adoption of Linux in the server room happened
in stages, and Linux on the desktop is going to blossom in the same fashion. Right now, the focus is in specialized fields--what marketroids
call "vertical markets"--where Linux's benefits cannot be ignored.
Bright Spots for Linux
So, for instance, you've got Linux fanning out amongst the wizards who create cinematic special effects. Linux doesn't just drive the render
farms at studios like Pixar and Weta; it has also made its way to artists' desktops. With Linux, entertainment companies spend less on
licensing, have more control over the guts of their systems, and can plow their savings into more boxes and tighter code. More boxes and
tighter code mean better, faster rendering.
Jollans also points out that Linux is doing well in the marketplace for browser-based desktops (PCs that are limited to running programs
through a browser), and in applications development. That latter trend is only going to increase as more and more universities worldwide
rework their curriculums to take advantage of Linux's open nature. Why teach operating system development using a dummy, lab-only OS
when you can instead have your students hack away on the code of a real one? Fewer and fewer schools are churning out grads who only
know the Microsoft way of doing things. And the more bright young geeks capable of hacking on Linux, the faster the system will achieve the
world domination that its creator, Linus Torvalds, has half-joked about for years.
In the immediate future, Jollans expects to see Linux conquer two new territories: the enterprise and government.
On one hand, enterprise desktops are a slam dunk because, by and large, they are standardized and require a few select applications.
Imagine the hundreds of bean counters at IBM who all run the same bean-counting app and use the same client to read e-mail. Linux can
easily meet these needs. There are all sorts of other good reasons to migrate: cost savings, ease of administration, better security, and so
forth. Never mind the fact that people everywhere (remember, IT directors are people, too!) are fed up with Microsoft's costly licensing
schemes and sometimes crummy support.
Governments, on the other hand, have different incentives for adopting Linux. Sure, cost savings is still important (hence the inroads Linux is
making in education), but many government entities--especially abroad--have realized that if taxpayers are shelling out for a computing
solution, it makes sense that they should control that solution as much as possible. The last thing a government agency wants is to set itself
up with a system that it cannot fully control, or that requires writing a check to a third party every time a box hiccups. When a government
adopts Open Source software, taxpayers get more for their money than off-the-shelf mainstream software that requires expensive upgrades
every a few years. They get code that can be accessed and altered and updated. No third party controls what the people have paid for. The
people aren't locked in.
Enough Already: When Will Linux ThinkPads Arrive?
So Linux has vertical markets eating out of its hand; and it's poised to move into the enterprise and government realms, where there is a ton
of money to be made by companies like IBM, Novell, and Red Hat. (Novell's embrace of Open Source is a fascinating 180-degree turn that may
prove to be a blueprint for other proprietary software companies that find themselves fading into obscurity.) What does this mean for the
prospects of Linux eventually making its way into your small business? Into your home? Onto your lap?
I think the pattern will be the same as it was for the PC itself. Personal computers arrived on desks in corporate workplaces first and spread
virus-like from there. Home computer sales took off in part because folks began thinking, "Hmm, I'd like to take this Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet
home and finish it off tonight." Microsoft Windows arrived in the home in part because folks began thinking, "Hmm, this new interface at the
office sure is better than DOS. The family will dig this."
Similarly, I believe consumer adoption of Linux will increase once more people are exposed to the OS on a daily basis and have a positive
experience with it. But you need a critical mass of people thinking, "Hmm, this Linux stuff works great at work; I think I want it at home as well"
before you'll ever see the Dells and IBMs of the world offering Linux preinstalled on consumer boxes. As for how far out that day is, Jollans
refuses to speculate.
He isn't the only one. I had a sit-down with Bruce Perens, one of the primary leaders of the Open Source movement. We talked a lot about
his "Open Source State of the Union" speech, but I also asked him about desktop Linux and where it is headed.
Two of his pet projects, the Desktop Linux Consortium and UserLinux, are focused on pushing Linux onto more desktops, so I was a bit
surprised to hear him say that a Linux box for your aunt-who-just-e-mails remains so far away it's not even worth speculating on a timeline. He
largely agrees with Jollans that business opportunities have to drive Linux adoption--and obviously there's a heck of a lot more money to be
made selling Linux to corporations and governments than to aunts-who-just-e-mail.
That said, Perens has a different take on who can and should be making the money here. The UserLinux project is all about providing
independent consultant-types with a standardized, supportable Linux so that they can go out into the world spreading the Free Software
gospel, migrating the world to Linux one business at a time.
Grass-Roots Support
Since the launch of this column, I've received a surprising amount of e-mail from readers who want to know how to make the switch to Linux--
right now. In the February issue of PC World, we ran a feature called "The Linux Experiment" that has generated a flood of similar e-mail. As a
longtime Open Source enthusiast who, admittedly, doesn't think very highly of Microsoft or its software, even I have been surprised by the
level of anger and frustration our readers have with Windows. I'm also surprised by how many folks are ready to make the switch to Linux
even if it means hitting some bumps in the road. So it's a bummer to attend LinuxWorld Expo and find that nobody at the show is much
interested--yet--in serving consumers who want an alternative to Microsoft and aren't going to buy a Macintosh.
Happily, LinuxWorld Expo is a business-skewed view of the Linux universe. I've got plenty of consumer-oriented Linux goodies floating around
my workspace, and will get back on track talking about some of them in my next column. Till then, stay as Free as you can, and please keep
those e-mails rolling in.
____________________________
NYLXS: New Yorker Free Software Users Scene
Fair Use -
because it's either fair use or useless....
NYLXS is a trademark of NYLXS, Inc
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