MESSAGE
| DATE | 2003-10-02 |
| FROM | Ruben I Safir
|
| SUBJECT | Re: [hangout] ESR: After Sun Goes Out
|
How much cash does Sun have?
BTW - ESR is no business guinius
Ruben
On 2003.10.02 14:39 "Inker, Evan" wrote:
>
> ESR: After Sun Goes Out
> Oct 2, 2003, 14 :00 UTC (19 Talkback[s]) (6747 reads)
> (Other stories by Eric S. Raymond)
> http://linuxtoday.com/it_management/mailprint.php3?action=pv<sn=2003-10-02
> -014-26-OP-BZ-SW
>
> By Eric S. Raymond
> President, Open Source Initiative
>
> Sun Microsystems crossed the line from "troubled" to "doomed" yesterday.
> This is sad news for the open-source community, and we need to think about
> how we're going to deal with it. The most pressing questions are "What
> becomes of Java?" and "What becomes of OpenOffice.org?" These are questions
> that matter.
>
> Sun's troubles have been mounting for a while. Founder Bill Joy's departure
> was an ominous recent symbol, but the substance of their problem is that
> their huge-margin server business is being eroded from the low end by PCs
> running Linux at a rate that doesn't leave it much of a future.
>
> Nobody should cheer the prospect of Sun's demise. Sun screwed up some major
> decisions very badly, from wrecking Unix standardization efforts in the
> 1980s to throttling the dream of Java ubiquity by keeping the language
> proprietary. But nobody should forget that Sun was founded by Unix hackers
> for Unix hackers. For most of its lifespan Sun remained the archetype of an
> engineering-driven company. Sun was, mostly, among the good guys; to hackers
> and geeks, disputing with Sun was almost a family quarrel.
>
> But inside Sun, I hear that talent is bailing out of the company because
> they just don't believe the Solaris-will-prevail story management is
> peddling. Most of Sun's techies are running Linux on their PCs at home. They
> can see the handwriting on the wall.
>
> In retrospect, the recent pronunciamento that Sun has no Linux strategy was
> their final admission of failure. Sun can't run at the lean profit margins
> that are all a commoditized Linux server market will support, their cost
> structure is all wrong for it. They got trapped in a classic innovator's
> dilemma and didn't cannibalize their own business while they had the
> investor confidence and maneuvering room to do so. Cuddling up to SCO didn't
> help, either.
>
> And now it's too late. Moody's has just about dropped Sun into the junk-bond
> basement. The stock closed at $3.31, 15% off for the day and falling in
> heavy trading. The recent product announcements have been duds, and the
> upcoming quarterlies are going to be a disaster. Wall street analysts are
> calling for drastic job cuts and speaking the code phrases that mean "run
> for the hills!" The smell of death is in the air.
>
> Any of Sun's people and tangible assets that don't scatter to the four winds
> will probably wind up in the hands of IBM, HP, and Dell--three companies
> that have shown they do know how to play the commodity-computing game. The
> SCO lawsuit probably won't be affected. Sun was the lesser-known of of SCO's
> sugar daddies along with Microsoft, but Redmond can pick up Sun's share of
> funding the lawsuit out of petty cash--and it undoubtedly will.
>
> The real question is two-fold: can OpenOffice.org survive without Sun and
> where will Java land? Probably not at Microsoft; with C# in the picture, it
> is unlikely that Microsoft even wants to own Java any more. I have to guess
> that IBM is the most likely to shoulder both technologies, simply because
> nobody else is really positioned to do it. But that, of course, raises other
> worries--is it really good for us if IBM has a lead position in everything?
>
> Related Stories:
> Reuters: Sun Shares Tumble, Wall St Seeks Deeper Cost Cuts(Oct 01, 2003)
> NewsForge: What Sun Needs To Do Now to Survive(Sep 30, 2003)
>
>
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